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Biolog vs Rubin Yalta — Second League - Group 1 2020

Biolog
Biolog
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rubin Yalta
Rubin Yalta
7/16/2023Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Stadion Biolog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Biolog38%
×Draw26%
Rubin Yalta36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Biolog
1.34
Rubin Yalta
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 48 away

creates per match

Biolog
1.64
Rubin Yalta
1.17

allows per match

Biolog
1.45
Rubin Yalta
1.04

finishing

Biolog+0.00on par
Rubin Yalta+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biolog ↓

Rubin Yalta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Biolog or draw
64%
Biolog or Rubin Yalta
74%
Draw or Rubin Yalta
62%

Winning margin

Biolog wins by 2+
17%
Rubin Yalta wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Biolog 1+ goals
74%
Biolog 2+ goals
39%
Biolog 3+ goals
15%
Rubin Yalta 1+ goals
73%
Rubin Yalta 2+ goals
38%
Rubin Yalta 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Biolog (draw refunded)
51%
Rubin Yalta (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biolog at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.45 · 73 matches

Rubin Yalta away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.04 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biolog attack 1.64 + Rubin Yalta defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.34

Rubin Yalta attack 1.17 + Biolog defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Biolog scores more
38%
level
26%
Rubin Yalta scores more
36%

Biolog at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Biolog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Biolog 1–1 Rubin Yalta

Biolog and Rubin Yalta drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 1 on July 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Biolog in Progress.