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Biolog vs Kuban Kholding — Second League - Group 1 2020

Biolog
Biolog
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kuban Kholding
Kuban Kholding
8/19/2023Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Stadion Biolog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Biolog35%
×Draw26%
Kuban Kholding39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Biolog
1.30
Kuban Kholding
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 91 away

creates per match

Biolog
1.64
Kuban Kholding
1.35

allows per match

Biolog
1.45
Kuban Kholding
0.97

finishing

Biolog+0.00on par
Kuban Kholding+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biolog ↓

Kuban Kholding →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Biolog or draw
61%
Biolog or Kuban Kholding
74%
Draw or Kuban Kholding
65%

Winning margin

Biolog wins by 2+
15%
Kuban Kholding wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Biolog 1+ goals
73%
Biolog 2+ goals
37%
Biolog 3+ goals
14%
Kuban Kholding 1+ goals
75%
Kuban Kholding 2+ goals
41%
Kuban Kholding 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Biolog (draw refunded)
47%
Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biolog at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.45 · 73 matches

Kuban Kholding away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biolog attack 1.64 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.30

Kuban Kholding attack 1.35 + Biolog defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Biolog scores more
35%
level
26%
Kuban Kholding scores more
39%

Kuban Kholding at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kuban Kholding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Biolog vs Kuban Kholding

Kuban Kholding beat Biolog 2-1 in Second League - Group 1 on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Biolog in Progress.