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Biolog vs Kuban Kholding — Cup 2019

Biolog
Biolog
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Kuban Kholding
Kuban Kholding
7/28/2019CupCup · 2nd RoundStadion Biolog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Biolog29%
×Draw22%
Kuban Kholding49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Biolog
1.45
Kuban Kholding
1.92

Kuban Kholding creates 32% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Biolog
2.00
Kuban Kholding
2.00

allows per match

Biolog
1.83
Kuban Kholding
0.90

finishing

Biolog+0.00on par
Kuban Kholding+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biolog ↓

Kuban Kholding →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Biolog or draw
51%
Biolog or Kuban Kholding
78%
Draw or Kuban Kholding
71%

Winning margin

Biolog wins by 2+
13%
Kuban Kholding wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Biolog 1+ goals
77%
Biolog 2+ goals
42%
Biolog 3+ goals
18%
Kuban Kholding 1+ goals
85%
Kuban Kholding 2+ goals
57%
Kuban Kholding 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Biolog (draw refunded)
38%
Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biolog at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Kuban Kholding away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biolog attack 2.00 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.45

Kuban Kholding attack 2.00 + Biolog defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Biolog scores more
29%
level
22%
Kuban Kholding scores more
49%

Kuban Kholding at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kuban Kholding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Biolog 3–1 Kuban Kholding

Biolog beat Kuban Kholding 3-1 in Cup on July 28, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Biolog in Progress.