Biolog 5–1 Krasnodar III: Result & Stats

Biolog

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Krasnodar III

6/15/2021

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 34Stadion Biolog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Biolog46%

×Draw24%

Krasnodar III30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BiologExpected goals in this matchKrasnodar III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.29

Biolog

1.67

Krasnodar III

1.29

Biolog creates 29% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 16 away

1.64

creates per match

1.13

1.45

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Biolog

1.64

Krasnodar III

1.13

allows per match

Biolog

1.45

Krasnodar III

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Biolog+0.00on par

Krasnodar III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biolog ↓

Krasnodar III →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Biolog or draw

70%

Biolog or Krasnodar III

76%

Draw or Krasnodar III

54%

Winning margin

Biolog wins by 2+

24%

Krasnodar III wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Biolog 1+ goals

81%

Biolog 2+ goals

50%

Biolog 3+ goals

23%

Krasnodar III 1+ goals

72%

Krasnodar III 2+ goals

37%

Krasnodar III 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Biolog (draw refunded)

61%

Krasnodar III (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biolog at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.45 · 73 matches

Krasnodar III away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biolog attack 1.64 + Krasnodar III defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.67

Krasnodar III attack 1.13 + Biolog defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Biolog scores more

46%

level

24%

Krasnodar III scores more

30%

Biolog at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Biolog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff