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Biolog vs Essentuki — Second League - Group 1 2020

Biolog
Biolog
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Essentuki
Essentuki
7/24/2022Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Stadion Biolog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Biolog69%
×Draw18%
Essentuki13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Biolog
2.34
Essentuki
0.91

Biolog creates 157% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 44 away

creates per match

Biolog
1.64
Essentuki
0.36

allows per match

Biolog
1.45
Essentuki
3.05

finishing

Biolog+0.00on par
Essentuki+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biolog ↓

Essentuki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Biolog or draw
87%
Biolog or Essentuki
82%
Draw or Essentuki
31%

Winning margin

Biolog wins by 2+
46%
Essentuki wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Biolog 1+ goals
90%
Biolog 2+ goals
67%
Biolog 3+ goals
41%
Essentuki 1+ goals
60%
Essentuki 2+ goals
23%
Essentuki 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Biolog (draw refunded)
84%
Essentuki (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biolog at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.45 · 73 matches

Essentuki away — creates 0.36, concedes 3.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biolog attack 1.64 + Essentuki defence 3.05 → ÷2 → 2.34

Essentuki attack 0.36 + Biolog defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Biolog scores more
69%
level
18%
Essentuki scores more
13%

Biolog at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Biolog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Biolog vs Essentuki

Biolog beat Essentuki 2-0 in Second League - Group 1 on July 24, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Biolog in Progress.