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Biolog vs Dinamo Stavropol — Cup 2019

Biolog
Biolog
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Stavropol
Dinamo Stavropol
9/13/2023CupCup · Regions Path - 3rd RoundStadion Biolog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Biolog40%
×Draw21%
Dinamo Stavropol39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Biolog
2.00
Dinamo Stavropol
1.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Biolog
2.00
Dinamo Stavropol
2.14

allows per match

Biolog
1.83
Dinamo Stavropol
2.00

finishing

Biolog+0.00on par
Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biolog ↓

Dinamo Stavropol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Biolog or draw
61%
Biolog or Dinamo Stavropol
79%
Draw or Dinamo Stavropol
60%

Winning margin

Biolog wins by 2+
22%
Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Biolog 1+ goals
86%
Biolog 2+ goals
59%
Biolog 3+ goals
32%
Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals
86%
Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals
59%
Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Biolog (draw refunded)
50%
Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biolog at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Dinamo Stavropol away — creates 2.14, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biolog attack 2.00 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Dinamo Stavropol attack 2.14 + Biolog defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Biolog scores more
40%
level
21%
Dinamo Stavropol scores more
39%

Biolog at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Biolog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Biolog 0–0 Dinamo Stavropol

Biolog and Dinamo Stavropol drew 0-0 in Cup on September 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Biolog in Progress.