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Biolog vs Chayka — Second League - Group 1 2020

Biolog
Biolog
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Chayka
Chayka
6/4/2023Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 5Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Biolog23%
×Draw23%
Chayka55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Biolog
1.13
Chayka
1.88

Chayka creates 66% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 31 away

creates per match

Biolog
1.64
Chayka
2.32

allows per match

Biolog
1.45
Chayka
0.61

finishing

Biolog+0.00on par
Chayka+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biolog ↓

Chayka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Biolog or draw
45%
Biolog or Chayka
77%
Draw or Chayka
77%

Winning margin

Biolog wins by 2+
9%
Chayka wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Biolog 1+ goals
68%
Biolog 2+ goals
31%
Biolog 3+ goals
11%
Chayka 1+ goals
85%
Chayka 2+ goals
56%
Chayka 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Biolog (draw refunded)
29%
Chayka (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biolog at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.45 · 73 matches

Chayka away — creates 2.32, concedes 0.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biolog attack 1.64 + Chayka defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.13

Chayka attack 2.32 + Biolog defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Biolog scores more
23%
level
23%
Chayka scores more
55%

Chayka at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Chayka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Biolog vs Chayka

Chayka beat Biolog 4-1 in Second League - Group 1 on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka in Peschanokopskoye.