Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Biolog vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz II — Second League - Group 1 2020

Biolog
Biolog
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
5/26/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Stadion Biolog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Biolog58%
×Draw21%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Biolog
2.02
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
1.11

Biolog creates 82% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 58 away

creates per match

Biolog
1.64
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
0.78

allows per match

Biolog
1.45
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
2.41

finishing

Biolog+0.00on par
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biolog ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Biolog or draw
80%
Biolog or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
79%
Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
42%

Winning margin

Biolog wins by 2+
35%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Biolog 1+ goals
87%
Biolog 2+ goals
60%
Biolog 3+ goals
33%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1+ goals
67%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2+ goals
30%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Biolog (draw refunded)
74%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biolog at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.45 · 73 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biolog attack 1.64 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz II defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.02

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II attack 0.78 + Biolog defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Biolog scores more
58%
level
21%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II scores more
20%

Biolog at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Biolog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Biolog vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

Biolog beat Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 4-0 in Second League - Group 1 on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Biolog in Progress.