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Bintang Lair vs Transvaal — Eerste Divisie 2019

Bintang Lair
Bintang Lair
FT
0 – 1
Transvaal
Transvaal
3/19/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 4Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Bintang Lair17%
×Draw17%
Transvaal66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bintang Lair
1.38
Transvaal
2.79

Transvaal creates 102% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 60 away

creates per match

Bintang Lair
1.56
Transvaal
1.90

allows per match

Bintang Lair
3.69
Transvaal
1.20

finishing

Bintang Lair+0.00on par
Transvaal+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bintang Lair ↓

Transvaal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Bintang Lair or draw
34%
Bintang Lair or Transvaal
83%
Draw or Transvaal
83%

Winning margin

Bintang Lair wins by 2+
7%
Transvaal wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Bintang Lair 1+ goals
75%
Bintang Lair 2+ goals
40%
Bintang Lair 3+ goals
16%
Transvaal 1+ goals
94%
Transvaal 2+ goals
76%
Transvaal 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Bintang Lair (draw refunded)
21%
Transvaal (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bintang Lair at home — creates 1.56, concedes 3.69 · 16 matches

Transvaal away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.20 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bintang Lair attack 1.56 + Transvaal defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.38

Transvaal attack 1.90 + Bintang Lair defence 3.69 → ÷2 → 2.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Bintang Lair scores more
17%
level
17%
Transvaal scores more
66%

Transvaal at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Transvaal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bintang Lair vs Transvaal

Transvaal beat Bintang Lair 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.