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Bintang Lair vs PVV — Eerste Divisie 2019

Bintang Lair
Bintang Lair
CANC
23:00
PVV
PVV
5/21/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 17Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Bintang Lair20%
×Draw18%
PVV62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bintang Lair
1.47
PVV
2.65

PVV creates 80% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 48 away

creates per match

Bintang Lair
1.56
PVV
1.60

allows per match

Bintang Lair
3.69
PVV
1.38

finishing

Bintang Lair+0.00on par
PVV+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bintang Lair ↓

PVV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Bintang Lair or draw
38%
Bintang Lair or PVV
82%
Draw or PVV
80%

Winning margin

Bintang Lair wins by 2+
9%
PVV wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Bintang Lair 1+ goals
77%
Bintang Lair 2+ goals
43%
Bintang Lair 3+ goals
18%
PVV 1+ goals
93%
PVV 2+ goals
74%
PVV 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Bintang Lair (draw refunded)
24%
PVV (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bintang Lair at home — creates 1.56, concedes 3.69 · 16 matches

PVV away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.38 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bintang Lair attack 1.56 + PVV defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.47

PVV attack 1.60 + Bintang Lair defence 3.69 → ÷2 → 2.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bintang Lair scores more
20%
level
18%
PVV scores more
62%

PVV at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "PVV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bintang Lair face PVV (Eerste Divisie)

Eerste Divisie returns with Bintang Lair hosting PVV. Match starts May 21, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bintang Lair host PVV at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.