Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bintang Lair vs Leo Victor — Eerste Divisie 2019

Bintang Lair
Bintang Lair
FT
0 – 5
Leo Victor
Leo Victor
6/12/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 12Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Bintang Lair21%
×Draw18%
Leo Victor61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bintang Lair
1.58
Leo Victor
2.74

Leo Victor creates 73% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 57 away

creates per match

Bintang Lair
1.56
Leo Victor
1.79

allows per match

Bintang Lair
3.69
Leo Victor
1.60

finishing

Bintang Lair+0.00on par
Leo Victor+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bintang Lair ↓

Leo Victor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–25%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Bintang Lair or draw
39%
Bintang Lair or Leo Victor
82%
Draw or Leo Victor
79%

Winning margin

Bintang Lair wins by 2+
9%
Leo Victor wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Bintang Lair 1+ goals
79%
Bintang Lair 2+ goals
47%
Bintang Lair 3+ goals
21%
Leo Victor 1+ goals
93%
Leo Victor 2+ goals
75%
Leo Victor 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Bintang Lair (draw refunded)
26%
Leo Victor (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bintang Lair at home — creates 1.56, concedes 3.69 · 16 matches

Leo Victor away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.60 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bintang Lair attack 1.56 + Leo Victor defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.58

Leo Victor attack 1.79 + Bintang Lair defence 3.69 → ÷2 → 2.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Bintang Lair scores more
21%
level
18%
Leo Victor scores more
61%

Leo Victor at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Leo Victor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Bintang Lair 0–5 Leo Victor

Leo Victor beat Bintang Lair 5-0 in Eerste Divisie on June 12, 2022.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.