Binissalem 4–0 Son Veri: Result & Stats

Binissalem

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Son Veri

4/10/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 38Estadio Miquel Pons

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Binissalem75%

×Draw16%

Son Veri9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BinissalemExpected goals in this matchSon Veri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

0.68

Binissalem

2.37

Son Veri

0.68

Binissalem creates 249% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 20 away

1.09

creates per match

0.40

0.96

allows per match

3.65

creates per match

Binissalem

1.09

Son Veri

0.40

allows per match

Binissalem

0.96

Son Veri

3.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Binissalem+0.00on par

Son Veri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binissalem ↓

Son Veri →

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–011%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Binissalem or draw

91%

Binissalem or Son Veri

84%

Draw or Son Veri

25%

Winning margin

Binissalem wins by 2+

52%

Son Veri wins by 2+

Team goals

Binissalem 1+ goals

91%

Binissalem 2+ goals

68%

Binissalem 3+ goals

42%

Son Veri 1+ goals

49%

Son Veri 2+ goals

15%

Son Veri 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Binissalem (draw refunded)

89%

Son Veri (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Binissalem at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.96 · 115 matches

Son Veri away — creates 0.40, concedes 3.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Binissalem attack 1.09 + Son Veri defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 2.37

Son Veri attack 0.40 + Binissalem defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 75%?"

Binissalem scores more

75%

level

16%

Son Veri scores more

Binissalem at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Binissalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff