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Binissalem vs Collerense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Binissalem
Binissalem
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Collerense
Collerense
3/9/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 25Estadio Miquel Pons

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Binissalem49%
×Draw26%
Collerense25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Binissalem
1.48
Collerense
0.98

Binissalem creates 51% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 113 away

creates per match

Binissalem
1.09
Collerense
1.00

allows per match

Binissalem
0.96
Collerense
1.88

finishing

Binissalem+0.00on par
Collerense+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binissalem ↓

Collerense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Binissalem or draw
75%
Binissalem or Collerense
74%
Draw or Collerense
51%

Winning margin

Binissalem wins by 2+
24%
Collerense wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Binissalem 1+ goals
77%
Binissalem 2+ goals
43%
Binissalem 3+ goals
19%
Collerense 1+ goals
62%
Collerense 2+ goals
26%
Collerense 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Binissalem (draw refunded)
66%
Collerense (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binissalem at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.96 · 115 matches

Collerense away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binissalem attack 1.09 + Collerense defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.48

Collerense attack 1.00 + Binissalem defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Binissalem scores more
49%
level
26%
Collerense scores more
25%

Binissalem at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Binissalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Binissalem vs Collerense

Binissalem beat Collerense 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Miquel Pons in Mallorca.