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Binh Thuan vs Pho Hien — V.League 2 2020

Binh Thuan
Binh Thuan
CANC
09:00
Pho Hien
Pho Hien
10/21/2023V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 1Sân vận động tỉnh Ninh Thuận

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Binh Thuan21%
×Draw23%
Pho Hien56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Binh Thuan
0.98
Pho Hien
1.79

Pho Hien creates 83% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 52 away

creates per match

Binh Thuan
1.33
Pho Hien
1.15

allows per match

Binh Thuan
2.44
Pho Hien
0.62

finishing

Binh Thuan+0.00on par
Pho Hien+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binh Thuan ↓

Pho Hien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Binh Thuan or draw
44%
Binh Thuan or Pho Hien
77%
Draw or Pho Hien
79%

Winning margin

Binh Thuan wins by 2+
7%
Pho Hien wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Binh Thuan 1+ goals
62%
Binh Thuan 2+ goals
26%
Binh Thuan 3+ goals
8%
Pho Hien 1+ goals
83%
Pho Hien 2+ goals
53%
Pho Hien 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Binh Thuan (draw refunded)
27%
Pho Hien (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binh Thuan at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

Pho Hien away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.62 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binh Thuan attack 1.33 + Pho Hien defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.98

Pho Hien attack 1.15 + Binh Thuan defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Binh Thuan scores more
21%
level
23%
Pho Hien scores more
56%

Pho Hien at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Pho Hien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Binh Thuan host Pho Hien

October 21, 2023: Binh Thuan take on Pho Hien in V.League 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Binh Thuan host Pho Hien at Sân vận động tỉnh Ninh Thuận.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.