Binh Thuan 0–1 Hòa Bình: Result & Stats

Binh Thuan

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hòa Bình

7/22/2023

V.League 2 · Round 12Sân vận động tỉnh Ninh Thuận

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Binh Thuan31%

×Draw25%

Hòa Bình44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Binh ThuanExpected goals in this matchHòa Bình

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.53

Binh Thuan

1.23

Hòa Bình

1.53

Hòa Bình creates 24% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 29 away

1.33

creates per match

0.62

2.44

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Binh Thuan

1.33

Hòa Bình

0.62

allows per match

Binh Thuan

2.44

Hòa Bình

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Binh Thuan+0.00on par

Hòa Bình+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binh Thuan ↓

Hòa Bình →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Binh Thuan or draw

56%

Binh Thuan or Hòa Bình

75%

Draw or Hòa Bình

69%

Winning margin

Binh Thuan wins by 2+

13%

Hòa Bình wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Binh Thuan 1+ goals

71%

Binh Thuan 2+ goals

35%

Binh Thuan 3+ goals

13%

Hòa Bình 1+ goals

78%

Hòa Bình 2+ goals

45%

Hòa Bình 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Binh Thuan (draw refunded)

41%

Hòa Bình (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binh Thuan at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

Hòa Bình away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.14 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binh Thuan attack 1.33 + Hòa Bình defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Hòa Bình attack 0.62 + Binh Thuan defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Binh Thuan scores more

31%

level

25%

Hòa Bình scores more

44%

Hòa Bình at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hòa Bình will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff