Binh Thuan 2–1 Ho Chi Minh City: Result & Stats

Binh Thuan

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ho Chi Minh City

M. Q. Nguyen 87', 62'

D. K. Nguyen 9'

6/30/2023

V.League 2 · Round 10Sân vận động tỉnh Ninh Thuận

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Binh Thuan29%

×Draw24%

Ho Chi Minh City47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Binh ThuanExpected goals in this matchHo Chi Minh City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.67

Binh Thuan

1.27

Ho Chi Minh City

1.67

Ho Chi Minh City creates 31% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 51 away

1.33

creates per match

0.90

2.44

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Binh Thuan

1.33

Ho Chi Minh City

0.90

allows per match

Binh Thuan

2.44

Ho Chi Minh City

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Binh Thuan+0.00on par

Ho Chi Minh City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binh Thuan ↓

Ho Chi Minh City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Binh Thuan or draw

53%

Binh Thuan or Ho Chi Minh City

76%

Draw or Ho Chi Minh City

71%

Winning margin

Binh Thuan wins by 2+

12%

Ho Chi Minh City wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Binh Thuan 1+ goals

72%

Binh Thuan 2+ goals

36%

Binh Thuan 3+ goals

14%

Ho Chi Minh City 1+ goals

81%

Ho Chi Minh City 2+ goals

50%

Ho Chi Minh City 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Binh Thuan (draw refunded)

38%

Ho Chi Minh City (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binh Thuan at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

Ho Chi Minh City away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.22 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binh Thuan attack 1.33 + Ho Chi Minh City defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ho Chi Minh City attack 0.90 + Binh Thuan defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Binh Thuan scores more

29%

level

24%

Ho Chi Minh City scores more

47%

Ho Chi Minh City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ho Chi Minh City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

D. K. Nguyen

62'

M. Q. Nguyen

87'

M. Q. Nguyen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff