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Binh Thuan vs Dong Thap — V.League 2 2020

Binh Thuan
Binh Thuan
CANC
09:00
Dong Thap
Dong Thap
10/31/2023V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 3Sân vận động tỉnh Ninh Thuận

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Binh Thuan34%
×Draw25%
Dong Thap41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Binh Thuan
1.35
Dong Thap
1.52

Dong Thap creates 13% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 40 away

creates per match

Binh Thuan
1.33
Dong Thap
0.60

allows per match

Binh Thuan
2.44
Dong Thap
1.38

finishing

Binh Thuan+0.00on par
Dong Thap+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binh Thuan ↓

Dong Thap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Binh Thuan or draw
59%
Binh Thuan or Dong Thap
75%
Draw or Dong Thap
66%

Winning margin

Binh Thuan wins by 2+
15%
Dong Thap wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Binh Thuan 1+ goals
74%
Binh Thuan 2+ goals
39%
Binh Thuan 3+ goals
15%
Dong Thap 1+ goals
78%
Dong Thap 2+ goals
45%
Dong Thap 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Binh Thuan (draw refunded)
45%
Dong Thap (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binh Thuan at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

Dong Thap away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.38 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binh Thuan attack 1.33 + Dong Thap defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Dong Thap attack 0.60 + Binh Thuan defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Binh Thuan scores more
34%
level
25%
Dong Thap scores more
41%

Dong Thap at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dong Thap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Binh Thuan host Dong Thap

October 31, 2023: Binh Thuan take on Dong Thap in V.League 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Binh Thuan host Dong Thap at Sân vận động tỉnh Ninh Thuận.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.