Bình Phước 3–0 Quang Nam: Result & Stats | Cup

Bình Phước

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Quang Nam

4/11/2022

Cup · Round of 16Sân vận động Bình Phước

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bình Phước46%

×Draw25%

Quang Nam29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bình PhướcExpected goals in this matchQuang Nam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.19

Bình Phước

1.56

Quang Nam

1.19

Bình Phước creates 31% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

1.63

creates per match

1.00

1.38

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Bình Phước

1.63

Quang Nam

1.00

allows per match

Bình Phước

1.38

Quang Nam

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bình Phước+0.00on par

Quang Nam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bình Phước ↓

Quang Nam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bình Phước or draw

71%

Bình Phước or Quang Nam

75%

Draw or Quang Nam

54%

Winning margin

Bình Phước wins by 2+

23%

Quang Nam wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bình Phước 1+ goals

79%

Bình Phước 2+ goals

46%

Bình Phước 3+ goals

21%

Quang Nam 1+ goals

70%

Quang Nam 2+ goals

33%

Quang Nam 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bình Phước (draw refunded)

61%

Quang Nam (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bình Phước at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Quang Nam away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bình Phước attack 1.63 + Quang Nam defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Quang Nam attack 1.00 + Bình Phước defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bình Phước scores more

46%

level

25%

Quang Nam scores more

29%

Bình Phước at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bình Phước will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff