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Bình Phước vs Long An — V.League 2 2020

Bình Phước
Bình Phước
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Long An
Long An
6/21/2025V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 22Sân vận động Bình Phước

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Bình Phước54%
×Draw26%
Long An20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bình Phước
1.54
Long An
0.83

Bình Phước creates 86% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 62 away

creates per match

Bình Phước
1.55
Long An
0.89

allows per match

Bình Phước
0.77
Long An
1.53

finishing

Bình Phước+0.00on par
Long An+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bình Phước ↓

Long An →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bình Phước or draw
80%
Bình Phước or Long An
74%
Draw or Long An
46%

Winning margin

Bình Phước wins by 2+
28%
Long An wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bình Phước 1+ goals
79%
Bình Phước 2+ goals
45%
Bình Phước 3+ goals
20%
Long An 1+ goals
56%
Long An 2+ goals
20%
Long An 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bình Phước (draw refunded)
73%
Long An (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bình Phước at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.77 · 62 matches

Long An away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.53 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bình Phước attack 1.55 + Long An defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.54

Long An attack 0.89 + Bình Phước defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bình Phước scores more
54%
level
26%
Long An scores more
20%

Bình Phước at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bình Phước will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bình Phước vs Long An

Bình Phước beat Long An 3-0 in V.League 2 on June 21, 2025.

The match was played at Sân vận động Bình Phước in Bình Phước.