Bình Phước 3–0 Dong Nai: Result & Stats

Bình Phước

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dong Nai

5/19/2024

V.League 2 · Round 18Sân vận động Bình Phước

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Bình Phước60%

×Draw26%

Dong Nai14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bình PhướcExpected goals in this matchDong Nai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.58

Bình Phước

1.52

Dong Nai

0.58

Bình Phước creates 162% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 20 away

1.55

creates per match

0.40

0.77

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Bình Phước

1.55

Dong Nai

0.40

allows per match

Bình Phước

0.77

Dong Nai

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bình Phước+0.00on par

Dong Nai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bình Phước ↓

Dong Nai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Bình Phước or draw

86%

Bình Phước or Dong Nai

74%

Draw or Dong Nai

40%

Winning margin

Bình Phước wins by 2+

32%

Dong Nai wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Bình Phước 1+ goals

78%

Bình Phước 2+ goals

45%

Bình Phước 3+ goals

20%

Dong Nai 1+ goals

44%

Dong Nai 2+ goals

12%

Dong Nai 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Bình Phước (draw refunded)

81%

Dong Nai (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bình Phước at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.77 · 62 matches

Dong Nai away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bình Phước attack 1.55 + Dong Nai defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Dong Nai attack 0.40 + Bình Phước defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Bình Phước scores more

60%

level

26%

Dong Nai scores more

14%

Bình Phước at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Bình Phước will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff