Bình Phước 0–1 Binh Thuan: Result & Stats

Bình Phước

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Binh Thuan

7/15/2023

V.League 2 · Round 11Sân vận động Bình Phước

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Bình Phước61%

×Draw21%

Binh Thuan18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bình PhướcExpected goals in this matchBinh Thuan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.99

Bình Phước

2.00

Binh Thuan

0.99

Bình Phước creates 102% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 9 away

1.55

creates per match

1.22

0.77

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Bình Phước

1.55

Binh Thuan

1.22

allows per match

Bình Phước

0.77

Binh Thuan

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bình Phước+0.00on par

Binh Thuan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bình Phước ↓

Binh Thuan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Bình Phước or draw

82%

Bình Phước or Binh Thuan

79%

Draw or Binh Thuan

39%

Winning margin

Bình Phước wins by 2+

37%

Binh Thuan wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bình Phước 1+ goals

86%

Bình Phước 2+ goals

59%

Bình Phước 3+ goals

32%

Binh Thuan 1+ goals

63%

Binh Thuan 2+ goals

26%

Binh Thuan 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bình Phước (draw refunded)

77%

Binh Thuan (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bình Phước at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.77 · 62 matches

Binh Thuan away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bình Phước attack 1.55 + Binh Thuan defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.00

Binh Thuan attack 1.22 + Bình Phước defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Bình Phước scores more

61%

level

21%

Binh Thuan scores more

18%

Bình Phước at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Bình Phước will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff