Binh Duong 1–2 Viettel: Result & Stats | V.League 1

Binh Duong

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Viettel

3/8/2025

V.League 1 · Round 16Sân vận động Gò Đậu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Binh Duong37%

×Draw27%

Viettel37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Binh DuongExpected goals in this matchViettel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

Binh Duong

1.27

Viettel

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 90 away

1.45

creates per match

1.22

1.31

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Binh Duong

1.45

Viettel

1.22

allows per match

Binh Duong

1.31

Viettel

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Binh Duong+0.00on par

Viettel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binh Duong ↓

Viettel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Binh Duong or draw

63%

Binh Duong or Viettel

73%

Draw or Viettel

63%

Winning margin

Binh Duong wins by 2+

16%

Viettel wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Binh Duong 1+ goals

72%

Binh Duong 2+ goals

36%

Binh Duong 3+ goals

14%

Viettel 1+ goals

72%

Viettel 2+ goals

36%

Viettel 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Binh Duong (draw refunded)

50%

Viettel (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binh Duong at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.31 · 86 matches

Viettel away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binh Duong attack 1.45 + Viettel defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.27

Viettel attack 1.22 + Binh Duong defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Binh Duong scores more

37%

level

27%

Viettel scores more

37%

Binh Duong at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Binh Duong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff