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Binh Duong vs Tay Ninh — Cup 2019

Binh Duong
Binh Duong
FT
5 – 0
Tay Ninh
Tay Ninh
6/30/2019CupCup · 8th FinalsSân vận động Gò Đậu (Go Dau Stadium) (Thủ Dầu Một (Thu Dau Mot))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Binh Duong71%
×Draw16%
Tay Ninh13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Binh Duong
2.83
Tay Ninh
1.17

Binh Duong creates 142% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Binh Duong
2.33
Tay Ninh
1.67

allows per match

Binh Duong
0.67
Tay Ninh
3.33

finishing

Binh Duong+0.00on par
Tay Ninh+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binh Duong ↓

Tay Ninh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Binh Duong or draw
87%
Binh Duong or Tay Ninh
84%
Draw or Tay Ninh
29%

Winning margin

Binh Duong wins by 2+
50%
Tay Ninh wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Binh Duong 1+ goals
94%
Binh Duong 2+ goals
77%
Binh Duong 3+ goals
53%
Tay Ninh 1+ goals
69%
Tay Ninh 2+ goals
33%
Tay Ninh 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Binh Duong (draw refunded)
84%
Tay Ninh (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binh Duong at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Tay Ninh away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binh Duong attack 2.33 + Tay Ninh defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.83

Tay Ninh attack 1.67 + Binh Duong defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Binh Duong scores more
71%
level
16%
Tay Ninh scores more
13%

Binh Duong at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Binh Duong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Binh Duong 5–0 Tay Ninh

Binh Duong beat Tay Ninh 5-0 in Cup on June 30, 2019.

The match was played at Sân vận động Gò Đậu (Go Dau Stadium) (Thủ Dầu Một (Thu Dau Mot)).