Binh Duong vs Hoang Anh Gia Lai — V.League 1 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 86+ matches
Binh Duong45%
Hoang Anh Gia Lai29%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Binh Duong creates 30% more chances
Season form · 86 home / 90 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Binh Duong ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Binh Duong at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.31 · 86 matches
Hoang Anh Gia Lai away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.60 · 90 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Binh Duong attack 1.45 + Hoang Anh Gia Lai defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52
Hoang Anh Gia Lai attack 1.03 + Binh Duong defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Binh Duong at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Binh Duong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Ha Noi
Ho Chi Minh City
Than Quang NinhBinh Duong
Sai Gon
Viettel
Song Lam Nghe AnHoang Anh Gia Lai
Quang Nam
Da Nang
Nam Dinh
Hai Phong
Thanh Hóa
Sanna Khanh HoaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Binh Duong host Hoang Anh Gia Lai on Saturday, 2 November 2024 at 11:00. The match is part of the V.League 1 2019/2020 season.
V.League 1: Binh Duong 4–1 Hoang Anh Gia Lai
Binh Duong beat Hoang Anh Gia Lai 4-1 in V.League 1 on November 2, 2024.
Goals: Phạm Lý Đức (24'), Nguyễn Tiến Linh (35', 45+4'), Nguyễn Trần Việt Cường (59'), Võ Hoàng Minh Khoa (64').
The match was played at Sân vận động Gò Đậu in Thu Dau Mot.