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Binh Dinh vs Quang Nam — Cup 2019

Binh Dinh
Binh Dinhadvanced
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Quang Nam
Quang Nam
Unknown 120+7' (pen), 120+6' (pen), 120+5' (pen), 120+4' (pen), 120+2' (pen), 120+1' (pen)
Ha Duc Chinh 70'
Unknown 120+6' (pen), 120+5' (pen), 120+4' (pen), 120+3' (pen), 120+2' (pen)
V. H. Le 24'
7/6/2023CupCup · Round of 16Sân vận động Qui Nhơn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Binh Dinh53%
×Draw26%
Quang Nam22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Binh Dinh
1.55
Quang Nam
0.90

Binh Dinh creates 72% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Binh Dinh
1.60
Quang Nam
1.00

allows per match

Binh Dinh
0.80
Quang Nam
1.50

finishing

Binh Dinh+0.00on par
Quang Nam+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binh Dinh ↓

Quang Nam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Binh Dinh or draw
78%
Binh Dinh or Quang Nam
74%
Draw or Quang Nam
47%

Winning margin

Binh Dinh wins by 2+
27%
Quang Nam wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Binh Dinh 1+ goals
79%
Binh Dinh 2+ goals
46%
Binh Dinh 3+ goals
20%
Quang Nam 1+ goals
59%
Quang Nam 2+ goals
23%
Quang Nam 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Binh Dinh (draw refunded)
71%
Quang Nam (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binh Dinh at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Quang Nam away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binh Dinh attack 1.60 + Quang Nam defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Quang Nam attack 1.00 + Binh Dinh defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Binh Dinh scores more
53%
level
26%
Quang Nam scores more
22%

Binh Dinh at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Binh Dinh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
V. H. Le
70'
Ha Duc Chinh
120+1'
Penalty
120+1'
Missed penalty
120+2'
Penalty
120+2'
Penalty
120+3'
Missed penalty
120+3'
Penalty
120+4'
Penalty
120+4'
Penalty
120+5'
Penalty
120+5'
Penalty
120+6'
Penalty
120+6'
Penalty
120+7'
Penalty
120+7'
Missed penalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Binh Dinh 1 – 1 Quang Nam

Binh Dinh and Quang Nam drew 1-1 in Cup on July 6, 2023.

Goals: V. H. Le (24'), Ha Duc Chinh (70'), ? (120+1' pen, 120+2' pen, 120+2' pen, 120+3' pen, 120+4' pen, 120+4' pen, 120+5' pen, 120+5' pen, 120+6' pen, 120+6' pen, 120+7' pen).

The match was played at Sân vận động Qui Nhơn in Qui Nhon.