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Binh Dinh vs Dak Lak — V.League 2 2020

Binh Dinh
Binh Dinh
FT
4 – 0
Dak Lak
Dak Lak
6/6/2020V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 1Sân vận động Qui Nhơn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Binh Dinh55%
×Draw24%
Dak Lak21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Binh Dinh
1.72
Dak Lak
0.95

Binh Dinh creates 81% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 21 away

creates per match

Binh Dinh
2.10
Dak Lak
0.95

allows per match

Binh Dinh
0.95
Dak Lak
1.33

finishing

Binh Dinh+0.00on par
Dak Lak+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binh Dinh ↓

Dak Lak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Binh Dinh or draw
79%
Binh Dinh or Dak Lak
76%
Draw or Dak Lak
45%

Winning margin

Binh Dinh wins by 2+
31%
Dak Lak wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Binh Dinh 1+ goals
82%
Binh Dinh 2+ goals
51%
Binh Dinh 3+ goals
25%
Dak Lak 1+ goals
61%
Dak Lak 2+ goals
25%
Dak Lak 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Binh Dinh (draw refunded)
73%
Dak Lak (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binh Dinh at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

Dak Lak away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binh Dinh attack 2.10 + Dak Lak defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.72

Dak Lak attack 0.95 + Binh Dinh defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Binh Dinh scores more
55%
level
24%
Dak Lak scores more
21%

Binh Dinh at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Binh Dinh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Binh Dinh vs Dak Lak

Binh Dinh beat Dak Lak 4-0 in V.League 2 on June 6, 2020.

The match was played at Sân vận động Qui Nhơn in Qui Nhon.