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Binh Dinh vs Bóng đá Huế — V.League 2 2020

Binh Dinh
Binh Dinh
FT
2 – 1
Bóng đá Huế
Bóng đá Huế
Le Duy Thanh 80'
Le Phong 60'
D. Tuan Tai 90+5'
7/13/2020V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 7Sân vận động Qui Nhơn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Binh Dinh58%
×Draw23%
Bóng đá Huế19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Binh Dinh
1.85
Bóng đá Huế
0.95

Binh Dinh creates 95% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 51 away

creates per match

Binh Dinh
2.10
Bóng đá Huế
0.96

allows per match

Binh Dinh
0.95
Bóng đá Huế
1.59

finishing

Binh Dinh+0.00on par
Bóng đá Huế+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binh Dinh ↓

Bóng đá Huế →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Binh Dinh or draw
81%
Binh Dinh or Bóng đá Huế
77%
Draw or Bóng đá Huế
42%

Winning margin

Binh Dinh wins by 2+
34%
Bóng đá Huế wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Binh Dinh 1+ goals
84%
Binh Dinh 2+ goals
55%
Binh Dinh 3+ goals
28%
Bóng đá Huế 1+ goals
61%
Bóng đá Huế 2+ goals
25%
Bóng đá Huế 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Binh Dinh (draw refunded)
75%
Bóng đá Huế (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binh Dinh at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

Bóng đá Huế away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binh Dinh attack 2.10 + Bóng đá Huế defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.85

Bóng đá Huế attack 0.96 + Binh Dinh defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Binh Dinh scores more
58%
level
23%
Bóng đá Huế scores more
19%

Binh Dinh at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Binh Dinh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'
Le Phong
80'
Le Duy Thanh
90+5'
D. Tuan Tai

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Binh Dinh 2 – 1 Bóng đá Huế

Binh Dinh beat Bóng đá Huế 2-1 in V.League 2 on July 13, 2020.

Goals: Le Phong (60'), Le Duy Thanh (80'), D. Tuan Tai (90+5').

The match was played at Sân vận động Qui Nhơn in Qui Nhon.