Binéfar 1–2 CDJ Tamarite: Result & Stats

Binéfar

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

CDJ Tamarite

12/21/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 15Estadio de Los Olmos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Binéfar52%

×Draw25%

CDJ Tamarite23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BinéfarExpected goals in this matchCDJ Tamarite

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.02

Binéfar

1.65

CDJ Tamarite

1.02

Binéfar creates 62% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 98 away

1.48

creates per match

1.05

0.98

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Binéfar

1.48

CDJ Tamarite

1.05

allows per match

Binéfar

0.98

CDJ Tamarite

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Binéfar+0.00on par

CDJ Tamarite+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binéfar ↓

CDJ Tamarite →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Binéfar or draw

77%

Binéfar or CDJ Tamarite

75%

Draw or CDJ Tamarite

48%

Winning margin

Binéfar wins by 2+

28%

CDJ Tamarite wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Binéfar 1+ goals

81%

Binéfar 2+ goals

49%

Binéfar 3+ goals

23%

CDJ Tamarite 1+ goals

64%

CDJ Tamarite 2+ goals

27%

CDJ Tamarite 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Binéfar (draw refunded)

69%

CDJ Tamarite (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binéfar at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.98 · 110 matches

CDJ Tamarite away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.81 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binéfar attack 1.48 + CDJ Tamarite defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.65

CDJ Tamarite attack 1.05 + Binéfar defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Binéfar scores more

52%

level

25%

CDJ Tamarite scores more

23%

Binéfar at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Binéfar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff