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Binéfar vs Belchite 97 — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Binéfar
Binéfar
FT
5 – 4
HT: 3 – 3
Belchite 97
Belchite 97
2/25/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 22Estadio de Los Olmos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Binéfar46%
×Draw28%
Belchite 9726%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Binéfar
1.33
Belchite 97
0.93

Binéfar creates 43% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 95 away

creates per match

Binéfar
1.48
Belchite 97
0.87

allows per match

Binéfar
0.98
Belchite 97
1.18

finishing

Binéfar+0.00on par
Belchite 97+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binéfar ↓

Belchite 97 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Binéfar or draw
74%
Binéfar or Belchite 97
72%
Draw or Belchite 97
54%

Winning margin

Binéfar wins by 2+
21%
Belchite 97 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Binéfar 1+ goals
74%
Binéfar 2+ goals
38%
Binéfar 3+ goals
15%
Belchite 97 1+ goals
61%
Belchite 97 2+ goals
24%
Belchite 97 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Binéfar (draw refunded)
64%
Belchite 97 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binéfar at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.98 · 110 matches

Belchite 97 away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.18 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binéfar attack 1.48 + Belchite 97 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.33

Belchite 97 attack 0.87 + Binéfar defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Binéfar scores more
46%
level
28%
Belchite 97 scores more
26%

Binéfar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Binéfar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Binéfar vs Belchite 97

Binéfar beat Belchite 97 5-4 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de Los Olmos in Binéfar.