Binéfar 2–1 Barbastro: Result & Stats

Binéfar

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Barbastro

Sergi Brunet 24'

Carlos Valencia 20'

Oscar Pérez 51'

3/28/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 2nd Phase - 1Estadio de Los Olmos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Binéfar38%

×Draw27%

Barbastro35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BinéfarExpected goals in this matchBarbastro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.25

Binéfar

1.32

Barbastro

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 59 away

1.48

creates per match

1.51

0.98

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Binéfar

1.48

Barbastro

1.51

allows per match

Binéfar

0.98

Barbastro

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Binéfar+0.00on par

Barbastro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binéfar ↓

Barbastro →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Binéfar or draw

65%

Binéfar or Barbastro

73%

Draw or Barbastro

62%

Winning margin

Binéfar wins by 2+

17%

Barbastro wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Binéfar 1+ goals

73%

Binéfar 2+ goals

38%

Binéfar 3+ goals

15%

Barbastro 1+ goals

71%

Barbastro 2+ goals

36%

Barbastro 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Binéfar (draw refunded)

52%

Barbastro (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Binéfar at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.98 · 110 matches

Barbastro away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.17 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Binéfar attack 1.48 + Barbastro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.32

Barbastro attack 1.51 + Binéfar defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Binéfar scores more

38%

level

27%

Barbastro scores more

35%

Binéfar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Binéfar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

Carlos Valencia

24'

Sergi Brunet

46'

Albert Simó← Julià Jou

46'

Jorge Ramos← Gorka Ojeda

46'

Oscar Pérez← Jaime

51'

Oscar Pérez

61'

Fran← Chicho

79'

Ramón Bayona← Oscar Imaz

86'

Lucas Fumanal← Lucas Elbaile

86'

Sergio Mendinueta← Juan Alvarado

89'

Makan← Carlos Valencia

Binéfar

Barbastro

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: David Giménez

46'▲Albert Simó←▼Julià Jou

61'▲Fran←▼Chicho

79'▲Ramón Bayona←▼Oscar Imaz

89'▲Makan←▼Carlos Valencia

Binéfar substitutes

SimóFranBayonaMakan

Manager: Daniel Martinez

46'▲Jorge Ramos←▼Gorka Ojeda

46'▲Oscar Pérez←▼Jaime

86'▲Lucas Fumanal←▼Lucas Elbaile

86'▲Sergio Mendinueta←▼Juan Alvarado

Barbastro substitutes

RamosPérezFumanalMendinueta

Match Recap: Binéfar vs Barbastro

Binéfar beat Barbastro 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on March 28, 2021.

Goals: Carlos Valencia (20'), Sergi Brunet (24'), Oscar Pérez (51').

The match was played at Estadio de Los Olmos in Binéfar.

Binéfar vs Barbastro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Binéfar vs Barbastro