Barbastro 1–0 Binéfar: Result & Stats

Barbastro

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Binéfar

Gustavo Abizanda 13'

5/1/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 34Estadio Municipal de Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Barbastro39%

×Draw30%

Binéfar31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarbastroExpected goals in this matchBinéfar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.96

Barbastro

1.11

Binéfar

0.96

Barbastro creates 16% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 111 away

1.02

creates per match

1.27

0.65

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Barbastro

1.02

Binéfar

1.27

allows per match

Barbastro

0.65

Binéfar

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barbastro+0.00on par

Binéfar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barbastro ↓

Binéfar →

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Barbastro or draw

69%

Barbastro or Binéfar

70%

Draw or Binéfar

61%

Winning margin

Barbastro wins by 2+

16%

Binéfar wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Barbastro 1+ goals

67%

Barbastro 2+ goals

30%

Barbastro 3+ goals

10%

Binéfar 1+ goals

62%

Binéfar 2+ goals

25%

Binéfar 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Barbastro (draw refunded)

56%

Binéfar (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Barbastro at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.65 · 60 matches

Binéfar away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Barbastro attack 1.02 + Binéfar defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.11

Binéfar attack 1.27 + Barbastro defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Barbastro scores more

39%

level

30%

Binéfar scores more

31%

Barbastro at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Barbastro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Gustavo Abizanda

51'

Gorka Ojeda← Pablo López

58'

Francesc Gómez← Fadiala Fofana

62'

Arturo Peralta← Rafinha

68'

Chicho← César

76'

Hector Otín← Marc Gulias

76'

Alberto Lantarón← Gustavo Abizanda

83'

M. Tounkara← Oscar Imaz

83'

Mohammed Laghrissi← Sales

Barbastro

Binéfar

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Josete

51'▲Gorka Ojeda←▼Pablo López

62'▲Arturo Peralta←▼Rafinha

76'▲Hector Otín←▼Marc Gulias

76'▲Alberto Lantarón←▼Gustavo Abizanda

Barbastro substitutes

OjedaPeraltaOtínLantarón

Manager: David Giménez

58'▲Francesc Gómez←▼Fadiala Fofana

68'▲Chicho←▼César

83'▲M. Tounkara←▼Oscar Imaz

83'▲Mohammed Laghrissi←▼Sales

Binéfar substitutes

GómezChichoTounkaraLaghrissi

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Barbastro 1–0 Binéfar

Barbastro beat Binéfar 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on May 1, 2022.

Goals: Gustavo Abizanda (13').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Deportes in Barbastro.

Barbastro vs Binéfar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Barbastro 1–0 Binéfar