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Billericay Town W vs Ipswich Town W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Billericay Town W
Billericay Town W
FT
2 – 1
Ipswich Town W
Ipswich Town W
4/4/2021FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundAGP Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Billericay Town W52%
×Draw18%
Ipswich Town W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Billericay Town W
2.90
Ipswich Town W
2.22

Billericay Town W creates 31% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

creates per match

Billericay Town W
4.29
Ipswich Town W
3.58

allows per match

Billericay Town W
0.86
Ipswich Town W
1.50

finishing

Billericay Town W+0.00on par
Ipswich Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Billericay Town W ↓

Ipswich Town W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Billericay Town W or draw
70%
Billericay Town W or Ipswich Town W
82%
Draw or Ipswich Town W
48%

Winning margin

Billericay Town W wins by 2+
33%
Ipswich Town W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Billericay Town W 1+ goals
94%
Billericay Town W 2+ goals
78%
Billericay Town W 3+ goals
54%
Ipswich Town W 1+ goals
89%
Ipswich Town W 2+ goals
65%
Ipswich Town W 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Billericay Town W (draw refunded)
63%
Ipswich Town W (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Billericay Town W at home — creates 4.29, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Ipswich Town W away — creates 3.58, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Billericay Town W attack 4.29 + Ipswich Town W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.90

Ipswich Town W attack 3.58 + Billericay Town W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Billericay Town W scores more
52%
level
18%
Ipswich Town W scores more
30%

Billericay Town W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Billericay Town W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Billericay Town W 2–1 Ipswich Town W

Billericay Town W beat Ipswich Town W 2-1 in FA Women's Cup on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at AGP Arena in Billericay, Essex.