Billericay Town W 2–1 Gillingham W: Result & Stats

Billericay Town W

2 – 1

Gillingham W

12/1/2019

FA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundAGP Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Billericay Town W78%

×Draw12%

Gillingham W10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Billericay Town WExpected goals in this matchGillingham W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.56

1.26

Billericay Town W

3.56

Gillingham W

1.26

Billericay Town W creates 183% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

4.29

creates per match

1.67

0.86

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Billericay Town W

4.29

Gillingham W

1.67

allows per match

Billericay Town W

0.86

Gillingham W

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Billericay Town W+0.00on par

Gillingham W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Billericay Town W ↓

Gillingham W →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–03%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–06%

4–17%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Billericay Town W or draw

90%

Billericay Town W or Gillingham W

88%

Draw or Gillingham W

22%

Winning margin

Billericay Town W wins by 2+

61%

Gillingham W wins by 2+

Team goals

Billericay Town W 1+ goals

97%

Billericay Town W 2+ goals

86%

Billericay Town W 3+ goals

67%

Gillingham W 1+ goals

72%

Gillingham W 2+ goals

36%

Gillingham W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Billericay Town W (draw refunded)

89%

Gillingham W (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Billericay Town W at home — creates 4.29, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Gillingham W away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Billericay Town W attack 4.29 + Gillingham W defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 3.56

Gillingham W attack 1.67 + Billericay Town W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 78%?"

Billericay Town W scores more

78%

level

12%

Gillingham W scores more

10%

Billericay Town W at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Billericay Town W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Billericay Town W vs Gillingham W

Billericay Town W beat Gillingham W 2-1 in FA Women's Cup on December 1, 2019.

The match was played at AGP Arena in Billericay, Essex.

Billericay Town W vs Gillingham W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Billericay Town W vs Gillingham W