Billericay Town W 2–1 Dulwich Hamlet W

Billericay Town W

2 – 1

Dulwich Hamlet W

11/26/2023

FA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundAGP Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Billericay Town W47%

×Draw19%

Dulwich Hamlet W33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Billericay Town WExpected goals in this matchDulwich Hamlet W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

2.13

Billericay Town W

2.54

Dulwich Hamlet W

2.13

Billericay Town W creates 19% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

4.29

creates per match

3.40

0.86

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Billericay Town W

4.29

Dulwich Hamlet W

3.40

allows per match

Billericay Town W

0.86

Dulwich Hamlet W

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Billericay Town W+0.00on par

Dulwich Hamlet W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Billericay Town W ↓

Dulwich Hamlet W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Billericay Town W or draw

67%

Billericay Town W or Dulwich Hamlet W

81%

Draw or Dulwich Hamlet W

53%

Winning margin

Billericay Town W wins by 2+

29%

Dulwich Hamlet W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Billericay Town W 1+ goals

92%

Billericay Town W 2+ goals

72%

Billericay Town W 3+ goals

46%

Dulwich Hamlet W 1+ goals

88%

Dulwich Hamlet W 2+ goals

63%

Dulwich Hamlet W 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Billericay Town W (draw refunded)

59%

Dulwich Hamlet W (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Billericay Town W at home — creates 4.29, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Dulwich Hamlet W away — creates 3.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Billericay Town W attack 4.29 + Dulwich Hamlet W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 2.54

Dulwich Hamlet W attack 3.40 + Billericay Town W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Billericay Town W scores more

47%

level

19%

Dulwich Hamlet W scores more

33%

Billericay Town W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Billericay Town W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff