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Billericay Town W vs Actonians W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Billericay Town W
Billericay Town W
FT
3 – 2
Actonians W
Actonians W
1/12/2020FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundAGP Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Billericay Town W70%
×Draw15%
Actonians W15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Billericay Town W
3.21
Actonians W
1.49

Billericay Town W creates 115% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Billericay Town W
4.29
Actonians W
2.13

allows per match

Billericay Town W
0.86
Actonians W
2.13

finishing

Billericay Town W+0.00on par
Actonians W+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Billericay Town W ↓

Actonians W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Billericay Town W or draw
85%
Billericay Town W or Actonians W
85%
Draw or Actonians W
30%

Winning margin

Billericay Town W wins by 2+
51%
Actonians W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Billericay Town W 1+ goals
96%
Billericay Town W 2+ goals
82%
Billericay Town W 3+ goals
60%
Actonians W 1+ goals
77%
Actonians W 2+ goals
44%
Actonians W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Billericay Town W (draw refunded)
82%
Actonians W (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Billericay Town W at home — creates 4.29, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Actonians W away — creates 2.13, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Billericay Town W attack 4.29 + Actonians W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 3.21

Actonians W attack 2.13 + Billericay Town W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Billericay Town W scores more
70%
level
15%
Actonians W scores more
15%

Billericay Town W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Billericay Town W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Billericay Town W 3–2 Actonians W

Billericay Town W beat Actonians W 3-2 in FA Women's Cup on January 12, 2020.

The match was played at AGP Arena in Billericay, Essex.