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Bilje vs Dravinja — 2. SNL 2019

Bilje
Bilje
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dravinja
Dravinja
A. Rashid Fuseini 85'
M. Furlan 43'
9/6/20252. SNL2. SNL · Round 5Stadion V dolinci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bilje44%
×Draw25%
Dravinja31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bilje
1.54
Dravinja
1.24

Bilje creates 24% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 45 away

creates per match

Bilje
1.41
Dravinja
1.20

allows per match

Bilje
1.28
Dravinja
1.67

finishing

Bilje+0.00on par
Dravinja+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bilje ↓

Dravinja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bilje or draw
69%
Bilje or Dravinja
75%
Draw or Dravinja
56%

Winning margin

Bilje wins by 2+
22%
Dravinja wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bilje 1+ goals
79%
Bilje 2+ goals
45%
Bilje 3+ goals
20%
Dravinja 1+ goals
71%
Dravinja 2+ goals
35%
Dravinja 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Bilje (draw refunded)
59%
Dravinja (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bilje at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

Dravinja away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.67 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bilje attack 1.41 + Dravinja defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.54

Dravinja attack 1.20 + Bilje defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bilje scores more
44%
level
25%
Dravinja scores more
31%

Bilje at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bilje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
M. Furlan
85'
A. Rashid Fuseini
Bilje
Dravinja
Ž. Pahor
Manager: Ž. Pahor
A. Sulejmanović
Manager: A. Sulejmanović

Match Recap: Bilje vs Dravinja

Bilje beat Dravinja 2-0 in 2. SNL on September 6, 2025.

Goals: M. Furlan (43'), A. Rashid Fuseini (85').

The match was played at Stadion V dolinci in Renče.