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Bilje vs Dekani — 2. SNL 2019

Bilje
Bilje
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dekani
Dekani
10/4/20252. SNL2. SNL · Round 9Stadion V dolinci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Bilje47%
×Draw26%
Dekani27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bilje
1.53
Dekani
1.10

Bilje creates 39% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 96 away

creates per match

Bilje
1.41
Dekani
0.93

allows per match

Bilje
1.28
Dekani
1.66

finishing

Bilje+0.00on par
Dekani+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bilje ↓

Dekani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bilje or draw
73%
Bilje or Dekani
74%
Draw or Dekani
53%

Winning margin

Bilje wins by 2+
24%
Dekani wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bilje 1+ goals
78%
Bilje 2+ goals
45%
Bilje 3+ goals
20%
Dekani 1+ goals
67%
Dekani 2+ goals
30%
Dekani 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bilje (draw refunded)
63%
Dekani (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bilje at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

Dekani away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.66 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bilje attack 1.41 + Dekani defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.53

Dekani attack 0.93 + Bilje defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bilje scores more
47%
level
26%
Dekani scores more
27%

Bilje at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bilje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'
M. Dobnikar
50'
M. Dobnikar
72'
A. Marc
76'
S. Kladar
76'
S. Kladar
90'
D. Cerovec
90'
D. Cerovec
Bilje
Dekani
Ž. Pahor
Manager: Ž. Pahor
Alen Sculac
Manager: Alen Sculac

Bilje 0 – 0 Dekani

Bilje and Dekani drew 0-0 in 2. SNL on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion V dolinci.