BIIK Kazygurt W 4–0 Slovan Bratislava W

BIIK Kazygurt W

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Slovan Bratislava W

8/18/2021

UEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - Semi-finalsBroadwood Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

BIIK Kazygurt W77%

×Draw14%

Slovan Bratislava W9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIIK Kazygurt WExpected goals in this matchSlovan Bratislava W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.91

0.94

BIIK Kazygurt W

2.91

Slovan Bratislava W

0.94

BIIK Kazygurt W creates 210% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 4 away

2.06

creates per match

0.25

1.63

allows per match

3.75

creates per match

BIIK Kazygurt W

2.06

Slovan Bratislava W

0.25

allows per match

BIIK Kazygurt W

1.63

Slovan Bratislava W

3.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BIIK Kazygurt W+0.00on par

Slovan Bratislava W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BIIK Kazygurt W ↓

Slovan Bratislava W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

BIIK Kazygurt W or draw

91%

BIIK Kazygurt W or Slovan Bratislava W

86%

Draw or Slovan Bratislava W

23%

Winning margin

BIIK Kazygurt W wins by 2+

57%

Slovan Bratislava W wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

BIIK Kazygurt W 1+ goals

94%

BIIK Kazygurt W 2+ goals

78%

BIIK Kazygurt W 3+ goals

54%

Slovan Bratislava W 1+ goals

61%

Slovan Bratislava W 2+ goals

24%

Slovan Bratislava W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

BIIK Kazygurt W (draw refunded)

89%

Slovan Bratislava W (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BIIK Kazygurt W at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Slovan Bratislava W away — creates 0.25, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BIIK Kazygurt W attack 2.06 + Slovan Bratislava W defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 2.91

Slovan Bratislava W attack 0.25 + BIIK Kazygurt W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

BIIK Kazygurt W scores more

77%

level

14%

Slovan Bratislava W scores more

9%

BIIK Kazygurt W at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "BIIK Kazygurt W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff