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BIIK Kazygurt W vs SFK Rīga W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

BIIK Kazygurt W
BIIK Kazygurt W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
SFK Rīga W
SFK Rīga Wadvanced
9/6/2023UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - Semi-finalsBenfica Campus Campo Nº7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

BIIK Kazygurt W71%
×Draw17%
SFK Rīga W12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BIIK Kazygurt W
2.53
SFK Rīga W
0.94

BIIK Kazygurt W creates 169% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 4 away

creates per match

BIIK Kazygurt W
2.06
SFK Rīga W
0.25

allows per match

BIIK Kazygurt W
1.63
SFK Rīga W
3.00

finishing

BIIK Kazygurt W+0.00on par
SFK Rīga W+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BIIK Kazygurt W ↓

SFK Rīga W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

BIIK Kazygurt W or draw
88%
BIIK Kazygurt W or SFK Rīga W
83%
Draw or SFK Rīga W
29%

Winning margin

BIIK Kazygurt W wins by 2+
49%
SFK Rīga W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

BIIK Kazygurt W 1+ goals
92%
BIIK Kazygurt W 2+ goals
71%
BIIK Kazygurt W 3+ goals
46%
SFK Rīga W 1+ goals
61%
SFK Rīga W 2+ goals
24%
SFK Rīga W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

BIIK Kazygurt W (draw refunded)
86%
SFK Rīga W (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BIIK Kazygurt W at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

SFK Rīga W away — creates 0.25, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BIIK Kazygurt W attack 2.06 + SFK Rīga W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.53

SFK Rīga W attack 0.25 + BIIK Kazygurt W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

BIIK Kazygurt W scores more
71%
level
17%
SFK Rīga W scores more
12%

BIIK Kazygurt W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "BIIK Kazygurt W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: BIIK Kazygurt W 0–1 SFK Rīga W

SFK Rīga W beat BIIK Kazygurt W 1-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on September 6, 2023.

The match was played at Benfica Campus Campo Nº7 in Seixal.