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BIIK Kazygurt W vs NSA Sofia W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

BIIK Kazygurt W
BIIK Kazygurt Wadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
NSA Sofia W
NSA Sofia W
9/4/2024UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - Semi-finalsStade Achille Hammerel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

BIIK Kazygurt W65%
×Draw17%
NSA Sofia W18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BIIK Kazygurt W
2.78
NSA Sofia W
1.44

BIIK Kazygurt W creates 93% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 4 away

creates per match

BIIK Kazygurt W
2.06
NSA Sofia W
1.25

allows per match

BIIK Kazygurt W
1.63
NSA Sofia W
3.50

finishing

BIIK Kazygurt W+0.00on par
NSA Sofia W+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BIIK Kazygurt W ↓

NSA Sofia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

BIIK Kazygurt W or draw
82%
BIIK Kazygurt W or NSA Sofia W
83%
Draw or NSA Sofia W
35%

Winning margin

BIIK Kazygurt W wins by 2+
44%
NSA Sofia W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

BIIK Kazygurt W 1+ goals
94%
BIIK Kazygurt W 2+ goals
76%
BIIK Kazygurt W 3+ goals
51%
NSA Sofia W 1+ goals
76%
NSA Sofia W 2+ goals
42%
NSA Sofia W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

BIIK Kazygurt W (draw refunded)
78%
NSA Sofia W (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BIIK Kazygurt W at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

NSA Sofia W away — creates 1.25, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BIIK Kazygurt W attack 2.06 + NSA Sofia W defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.78

NSA Sofia W attack 1.25 + BIIK Kazygurt W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

BIIK Kazygurt W scores more
65%
level
17%
NSA Sofia W scores more
18%

BIIK Kazygurt W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "BIIK Kazygurt W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: BIIK Kazygurt W 3–0 NSA Sofia W

BIIK Kazygurt W beat NSA Sofia W 3-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on September 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Achille Hammerel in Luxembourg.