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BIIK Kazygurt W vs Cliftonville W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

BIIK Kazygurt W
BIIK Kazygurt W
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Cliftonville W
Cliftonville W
9/9/2023UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - 3rd Place FinalsBenfica Campus Campo Nº7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

BIIK Kazygurt W72%
×Draw14%
Cliftonville W14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BIIK Kazygurt W
3.37
Cliftonville W
1.48

BIIK Kazygurt W creates 128% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 3 away

creates per match

BIIK Kazygurt W
2.06
Cliftonville W
1.33

allows per match

BIIK Kazygurt W
1.63
Cliftonville W
4.67

finishing

BIIK Kazygurt W+0.00on par
Cliftonville W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BIIK Kazygurt W ↓

Cliftonville W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
70%30%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

BIIK Kazygurt W or draw
86%
BIIK Kazygurt W or Cliftonville W
86%
Draw or Cliftonville W
28%

Winning margin

BIIK Kazygurt W wins by 2+
53%
Cliftonville W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

BIIK Kazygurt W 1+ goals
96%
BIIK Kazygurt W 2+ goals
84%
BIIK Kazygurt W 3+ goals
63%
Cliftonville W 1+ goals
77%
Cliftonville W 2+ goals
43%
Cliftonville W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

BIIK Kazygurt W (draw refunded)
84%
Cliftonville W (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BIIK Kazygurt W at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Cliftonville W away — creates 1.33, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BIIK Kazygurt W attack 2.06 + Cliftonville W defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.37

Cliftonville W attack 1.33 + BIIK Kazygurt W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

BIIK Kazygurt W scores more
72%
level
14%
Cliftonville W scores more
14%

BIIK Kazygurt W at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "BIIK Kazygurt W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BIIK Kazygurt W vs Cliftonville W

BIIK Kazygurt W beat Cliftonville W 4-2 in UEFA Champions League Women on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Benfica Campus Campo Nº7 in Seixal.