Bihor Oradea 1–0 Chindia Targoviste: Result & Stats

Bihor Oradea

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chindia Targoviste

I. Hora 37' (pen)

12/6/2024

Liga II · Round 16Stadionul Iuliu Bodola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bihor Oradea39%

×Draw25%

Chindia Targoviste35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bihor OradeaExpected goals in this matchChindia Targoviste

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.34

Bihor Oradea

1.43

Chindia Targoviste

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 53 away

1.67

creates per match

1.19

1.50

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Bihor Oradea

1.67

Chindia Targoviste

1.19

allows per match

Bihor Oradea

1.50

Chindia Targoviste

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bihor Oradea+0.00on par

Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bihor Oradea ↓

Chindia Targoviste →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Bihor Oradea or draw

65%

Bihor Oradea or Chindia Targoviste

75%

Draw or Chindia Targoviste

61%

Winning margin

Bihor Oradea wins by 2+

19%

Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bihor Oradea 1+ goals

76%

Bihor Oradea 2+ goals

42%

Bihor Oradea 3+ goals

17%

Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals

74%

Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals

39%

Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Bihor Oradea (draw refunded)

53%

Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bihor Oradea at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Chindia Targoviste away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.19 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bihor Oradea attack 1.67 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.43

Chindia Targoviste attack 1.19 + Bihor Oradea defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bihor Oradea scores more

39%

level

25%

Chindia Targoviste scores more

35%

Bihor Oradea at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bihor Oradea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

I. HoraPenalty

38'

51'

62'

62'

67'

71'

75'

79'

79'

A. Živković← D. Florea

80'

A. Moga← R. Curescu

90'

I. C. Rus

90+2'

G. Gitye

Bihor

Chindia

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Hora

Gunie

Manager: G. Ghiț

38'▲C. Jurj←▼L. Ioviță

71'▲L. Tincău←▼I. Hora

80'▲A. Moga←▼R. Curescu

Bihor Oradea substitutes

JurjTincăuMoga

Manager: M. Vătavu

62'▲R. Tache←▼A. Petre

62'▲S. Grubac←▼I. Pešić

67'▲A. Ioniță←▼R. Romeo

79'▲I. Zamfir←▼B. Petre

79'▲A. Živković←▼D. Florea

Chindia Targoviste substitutes

TacheGrubacIonițăZamfirŽivković

Liga II: Bihor Oradea 1–0 Chindia Targoviste

Bihor Oradea beat Chindia Targoviste 1-0 in Liga II on December 6, 2024.

Goals: I. Hora (37' pen).

The match was played at Stadionul Iuliu Bodola in Oradea.

Bihor Oradea vs Chindia Targoviste — Liga II 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Liga II: Bihor Oradea 1–0 Chindia Targoviste