Bihor Oradea vs ASA Targu Mures — Liga II 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 13+ matches
Bihor Oradea37%
ASA Targu Mures39%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 30 home / 13 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over58
- Under42
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Bihor Oradea ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Bihor Oradea at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches
ASA Targu Mures away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Bihor Oradea attack 1.67 + ASA Targu Mures defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.49
ASA Targu Mures attack 1.54 + Bihor Oradea defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
ASA Targu Mures at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "ASA Targu Mures will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
1 previous meeting · small sample
Corvinul Hunedoara
FC Voluntari
Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheASA Targu Mures
Metalul BuzăuBihor Oradea
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
Slatina
FC Bacau
Concordia
Politehnica Iasi
CSM Reşiţa
Chindia Targoviste
CS Afumati
Gloria Bistriţa
Viitorul Şelimbăr
Dumbrăviţa
CSM Satu Mare
Tunari
CS Dinamo București
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
Muscelul Câmpulung EliteIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Bihor Oradea host ASA Targu Mures on Sunday, 22 February 2026 at 10:30. The match is part of the Liga II 2018/2019 season.
Liga II: Bihor Oradea 2–1 ASA Targu Mures
Bihor Oradea beat ASA Targu Mures 2-1 in Liga II on February 22, 2026.
Goals: A. Boiciuc (56'), R. Rotund (71'), D. Tescan (90').
The match was played at Stadionul Iuliu Bodola in Oradea.