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Big Bullets vs TN Stars — Super League 2026

Big Bullets
Big Bullets
FT
6 – 0
TN Stars
TN Stars
5/15/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 12Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Big Bullets74%
×Draw17%
TN Stars9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Big Bullets
2.30
TN Stars
0.65

Big Bullets creates 254% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 27 away

creates per match

Big Bullets
2.27
TN Stars
0.59

allows per match

Big Bullets
0.71
TN Stars
2.33

finishing

Big Bullets+0.00on par
TN Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Big Bullets ↓

TN Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Big Bullets or draw
91%
Big Bullets or TN Stars
83%
Draw or TN Stars
26%

Winning margin

Big Bullets wins by 2+
51%
TN Stars wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Big Bullets 1+ goals
90%
Big Bullets 2+ goals
67%
Big Bullets 3+ goals
40%
TN Stars 1+ goals
48%
TN Stars 2+ goals
14%
TN Stars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Big Bullets (draw refunded)
89%
TN Stars (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Big Bullets at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.71 · 75 matches

TN Stars away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.33 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Big Bullets attack 2.27 + TN Stars defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.30

TN Stars attack 0.59 + Big Bullets defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Big Bullets scores more
74%
level
17%
TN Stars scores more
9%

Big Bullets at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Big Bullets vs TN Stars

Big Bullets beat TN Stars 6-0 in Super League on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Kamuzu Stadium in Blantyre.