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Big Bullets vs Ntopwa — Super League 2026

Big Bullets
Big Bullets
FT
1 – 1
Ntopwa
Ntopwa
1/16/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Big Bullets71%
×Draw18%
Ntopwa11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Big Bullets
2.17
Ntopwa
0.71

Big Bullets creates 206% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 16 away

creates per match

Big Bullets
2.33
Ntopwa
0.69

allows per match

Big Bullets
0.74
Ntopwa
2.00

finishing

Big Bullets+0.00on par
Ntopwa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Big Bullets ↓

Ntopwa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Big Bullets or draw
89%
Big Bullets or Ntopwa
82%
Draw or Ntopwa
29%

Winning margin

Big Bullets wins by 2+
46%
Ntopwa wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Big Bullets 1+ goals
89%
Big Bullets 2+ goals
64%
Big Bullets 3+ goals
36%
Ntopwa 1+ goals
51%
Ntopwa 2+ goals
16%
Ntopwa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Big Bullets (draw refunded)
87%
Ntopwa (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Big Bullets at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.74 · 80 matches

Ntopwa away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Big Bullets attack 2.33 + Ntopwa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Ntopwa attack 0.69 + Big Bullets defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Big Bullets scores more
71%
level
18%
Ntopwa scores more
11%

Big Bullets at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Big Bullets 1–1 Ntopwa

Big Bullets and Ntopwa drew 1-1 in Super League on January 16, 2021.

The match was played at Kamuzu Stadium in Blantyre.