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Biesheim vs Metz — Coupe de France 2018

Biesheim
Biesheim
FT
2 – 6
Metz
Metz
11/17/2012Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 7th RoundStade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Biesheim9%
×Draw14%
Metz76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Biesheim
0.87
Metz
2.77

Metz creates 218% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

creates per match

Biesheim
0.67
Metz
2.21

allows per match

Biesheim
3.33
Metz
1.07

finishing

Biesheim+0.00on par
Metz+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biesheim ↓

Metz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–210%
0–310%
0–47%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Biesheim or draw
24%
Biesheim or Metz
86%
Draw or Metz
91%

Winning margin

Biesheim wins by 2+
3%
Metz wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

Biesheim 1+ goals
58%
Biesheim 2+ goals
22%
Biesheim 3+ goals
6%
Metz 1+ goals
94%
Metz 2+ goals
76%
Metz 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Biesheim (draw refunded)
11%
Metz (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biesheim at home — creates 0.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Metz away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biesheim attack 0.67 + Metz defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.87

Metz attack 2.21 + Biesheim defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Biesheim scores more
9%
level
14%
Metz scores more
76%

Metz at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Metz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Biesheim 2–6 Metz

Metz beat Biesheim 6-2 in Coupe de France on November 17, 2012.

The match was played at Stade Municipal.