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Biescas vs Utebo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Biescas
Biescas
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Utebo
Utebo
2/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 17Estadio Joaquín Ascaso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Biescas20%
×Draw26%
Utebo54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Biescas
0.78
Utebo
1.48

Utebo creates 90% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 45 away

creates per match

Biescas
0.44
Utebo
1.09

allows per match

Biescas
1.88
Utebo
1.11

finishing

Biescas+0.00on par
Utebo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biescas ↓

Utebo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Biescas or draw
46%
Biescas or Utebo
74%
Draw or Utebo
80%

Winning margin

Biescas wins by 2+
6%
Utebo wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Biescas 1+ goals
54%
Biescas 2+ goals
18%
Biescas 3+ goals
4%
Utebo 1+ goals
77%
Utebo 2+ goals
43%
Utebo 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Biescas (draw refunded)
27%
Utebo (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biescas at home — creates 0.44, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Utebo away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biescas attack 0.44 + Utebo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.78

Utebo attack 1.09 + Biescas defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Biescas scores more
20%
level
26%
Utebo scores more
54%

Utebo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Utebo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Biescas vs Utebo

Utebo beat Biescas 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on February 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Joaquín Ascaso in Sabiñánigo.