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Biescas vs Santa Anastasia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Biescas
Biescas
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Santa Anastasia
Santa Anastasia
10/31/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 9Campo Municipal De Futbol Fernando Escartin Coti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Biescas26%
×Draw27%
Santa Anastasia47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Biescas
0.97
Santa Anastasia
1.41

Santa Anastasia creates 45% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Biescas
0.44
Santa Anastasia
0.94

allows per match

Biescas
1.88
Santa Anastasia
1.50

finishing

Biescas+0.00on par
Santa Anastasia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biescas ↓

Santa Anastasia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Biescas or draw
53%
Biescas or Santa Anastasia
73%
Draw or Santa Anastasia
74%

Winning margin

Biescas wins by 2+
9%
Santa Anastasia wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Biescas 1+ goals
62%
Biescas 2+ goals
25%
Biescas 3+ goals
7%
Santa Anastasia 1+ goals
76%
Santa Anastasia 2+ goals
41%
Santa Anastasia 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Biescas (draw refunded)
35%
Santa Anastasia (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biescas at home — creates 0.44, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Santa Anastasia away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biescas attack 0.44 + Santa Anastasia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.97

Santa Anastasia attack 0.94 + Biescas defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Biescas scores more
26%
level
27%
Santa Anastasia scores more
47%

Santa Anastasia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Santa Anastasia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Biescas 0 – 2 Santa Anastasia

Santa Anastasia beat Biescas 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Municipal De Futbol Fernando Escartin Coti in Biescas.