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Biescas vs Robres — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Biescas
Biescas
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Robres
Robres
2/26/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 25Campo Municipal De Futbol Fernando Escartin Coti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Biescas22%
×Draw26%
Robres52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Biescas
0.92
Robres
1.55

Robres creates 68% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 78 away

creates per match

Biescas
0.44
Robres
1.23

allows per match

Biescas
1.88
Robres
1.41

finishing

Biescas+0.00on par
Robres+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biescas ↓

Robres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Biescas or draw
48%
Biescas or Robres
74%
Draw or Robres
78%

Winning margin

Biescas wins by 2+
8%
Robres wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Biescas 1+ goals
60%
Biescas 2+ goals
23%
Biescas 3+ goals
7%
Robres 1+ goals
79%
Robres 2+ goals
46%
Robres 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Biescas (draw refunded)
30%
Robres (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biescas at home — creates 0.44, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Robres away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.41 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biescas attack 0.44 + Robres defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 0.92

Robres attack 1.23 + Biescas defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Biescas scores more
22%
level
26%
Robres scores more
52%

Robres at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Robres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Biescas 0–2 Robres

Robres beat Biescas 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Municipal De Futbol Fernando Escartin Coti in Biescas.