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Biescas vs Giner Torrero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Biescas
Biescas
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Giner Torrero
Giner Torrero
9/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 2Campo Municipal De Futbol Fernando Escartin Coti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Biescas55%
×Draw22%
Giner Torrero23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Biescas
1.94
Giner Torrero
1.19

Biescas creates 63% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Biescas
0.44
Giner Torrero
0.50

allows per match

Biescas
1.88
Giner Torrero
3.44

finishing

Biescas+0.00on par
Giner Torrero+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biescas ↓

Giner Torrero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Biescas or draw
77%
Biescas or Giner Torrero
78%
Draw or Giner Torrero
45%

Winning margin

Biescas wins by 2+
32%
Giner Torrero wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Biescas 1+ goals
86%
Biescas 2+ goals
58%
Biescas 3+ goals
30%
Giner Torrero 1+ goals
70%
Giner Torrero 2+ goals
33%
Giner Torrero 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Biescas (draw refunded)
70%
Giner Torrero (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biescas at home — creates 0.44, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Giner Torrero away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biescas attack 0.44 + Giner Torrero defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 1.94

Giner Torrero attack 0.50 + Biescas defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Biescas scores more
55%
level
22%
Giner Torrero scores more
23%

Biescas at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Biescas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Biescas 0–1 Giner Torrero

Giner Torrero beat Biescas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Municipal De Futbol Fernando Escartin Coti in Biescas.